Scientists have warned that many major cities around the world will become 'uninhabitable' around 2047 if the current amount of greenhouse gases continues to disperse into the atmosphere. The research showed that the increase in temperature in the atmosphere could reach record levels by the middle of the 21st century, and that the Amazon forests will be affected the most.
In their research based on comprehensive computer models, researchers from the University of Hawaii in the USA stated that in the period covering five years before or after 2047, the atmospheric temperature will reach a level that has never been recorded between 1860-2005.
In other words, 'the coldest year for certain regions will be even hotter than the warmest year in the past.'
Camilo Mora, the lead author of the study published in the journal Nature, stated that climate change, the results of which are difficult to predict, will occur more rapidly in tropical regions. Mora stated that the negative change will increase the impact on the world's largest forests and the corals where fish grow, which feeds tens of millions of people.
According to the New York Times report, Mora said, “Imagine the most severe, most traumatic event in your life… We say that soon this event will become the norm very soon.”
'WE SHOULD ADAPT TO GLOBAL WARMING'
Based on climate models, extensive computer programs and modelling, the research sought to predict the future effects of greenhouse gases by analyzing the physical effects of the climate system.
Although the models created by scientists are made using the most advanced equipment, it is not certain whether the results will appear after decades.
The models pointed out that if a large global effort is made to reduce the emission rate of greenhouse gases, the temperature increase can be delayed by 20-25 years. Scientists stated that although this period does not seem very long, it is very critical for humanity to adapt to climate change and develop the necessary technologies.
Scientists who were not involved in the study stated that if greenhouse gases are not prevented, they may encounter very serious long-term consequences.
Speaking to the New York Times, Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institute of Science said, “If the rate of carbon dioxide emissions continues at its current rate, the world may enter into climatic conditions that it has not experienced in millions of years.”
CITIES WILL BE LEFT IN 2046
The results showed that by 2047, more than half of the Earth will be exposed to climate change, with temperatures above the highest ever experienced in 1860-2005, unless greenhouse gases are prevented.
However, if the emission of greenhouse gases is significantly prevented, that date may be postponed to 2069.
Mora stated that their predictions cover the period including five years before and after 2047. If positive development occurs, the date of 2069 could be extended to 2072.
However, if greenhouse gases are not prevented, many big cities will become uninhabitable by 2047.
For example, the predicted date for Beijing is 2046. The optimistic date is 2078. While the dates set for Moscow, the capital of Russia, are 2063 and 2092; 2047 and 2071 for Washington.
The number of people whose lives will change completely under the optimistic model is 1; more than 5 billion in the pessimistic model.
Climate change will affect the tropical regions the most. The research stated that climate change will be more effective in these regions compared to the higher regions, and the heat trapped in the atmosphere due to greenhouse gases will cause faster warming.
Among the cities located in the tropics, Mexico City may become uninhabitable in 2031, Jakarta and Lagos in 2029, and Bogota in 2033.
“I am sure that the change will have enormous biological and social consequences… I cannot talk about the specific details,” said Mora.
Source : ntvmsnbc
📩 10/10/2013 22:53
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