The British science magazine “New Scientist” proposed 2100 scenarios for what the world would be like in 4, based on people's efforts and preferences. The scenarios published in New Scientist magazine were prepared according to the opinions of many climate, population, energy models and experts.
According to the first and optimistic scenario, the number of people living in the world today, which has a population of approximately 7,1 billion, and the carbon dioxide (CO2) rate in the atmosphere is 400 parts per million (400 ppm), will increase to 2100 billion in 9. The CO2 rate will decrease to 400 ppm.
According to this “dreamy” scenario, thanks to advances in technology, the spread of renewable energy, efforts and increased awareness of many issues, the rate of acidification in the oceans will slow down and CO2 will decrease.
According to the second scenario, developments in technology will “keep the world afloat” even though the threats to the climate are not taken very seriously. This scenario shows that in 2100 the world population will be 8,5 billion and the CO2 ratio will be 500 ppm.
In this scenario, the dream of a world where renewable and nuclear energy dominates, people eat less meat, therefore gas emissions are relatively reduced, cities are more compact, and the public transport network works extremely well.
According to the third scenario, greenhouse gases will not be reduced until the end of the century. The world population will reach 2100 billion in 9,5 and the CO2 rate will increase to 650 ppm.
According to this scenario, dependence on fossil fuels will not decrease, and there will not be much change in lifestyles such as consumption, travel and number of children. Although oil consumption will decrease, the rise in temperature and sea level will continue to increase.
According to the pessimistic final scenario, the world population will reach 12,5 billion and the CO2 rate will increase to 950 ppm. People will consume much more meat than today, investments in renewable energy will be insufficient, breathing will be difficult due to the increase in CO2 in many regions, the balance of the ecosystem will be disturbed due to the decrease in biodiversity, floods and droughts will occur more frequently, and the poles will no longer be covered with ice.
Scenario 2 requires a lot of sacrifice and work, according to Christian Gollier, an expert at the intergovernmental group of climate experts (GIEC). Gollier sees scenario 3 as the most likely.
In its 5th report published last month, GIEC announced that the average temperature in the world will increase by 2100-0,3 degrees until 4,8.
Günceleme: 28/10/2013 21:25